The Underdog Effect
There is something about widespread political, social, and economic upheaval that pushes us to embrace contradictory extremes. During the turmoil of the late 60’s and early 70’s we got the NBC series, Underdog. The animated show upended the traditional social order by endowing a lowly shoeshine dog with superpowers. The social inversion suggested a connection to the socio-political movements of the time and yet Underdog spoke in formal rhyme, evoking a connection to classical literature and poetry. We see this trend again today with a resurgence of home baked bread providing comfort and a connection to tradition against the backdrop of the massive socio-political movements occurring during the pandemic. When we face or embrace change on a heroic scale, we often find comfort in traditional forms and familiar institutions. Tradition and upheaval, conservative and progressive impulses, the familiar and the new, seem to coexist at the precipice of change. For business leaders, perhaps it is time to revisit the wisdom of our childhood by seeing what lessons Underdog may have for us in 2020.
With two-thirds of small businesses (65%) reporting that they are concerned about having to close again or stay closed this year due to COVID-19, it’s fair to say the business community is feeling like the underdog this year in their fight for survival. In a shifting landscape, leaders may look to conventional wisdom for a lifeline. Experts routinely warn against the dangers of setting goals too low. Leaders are generally encouraged to set expectations high and monitor progress no matter what. “Inspect what you expect” so the saying goes. You can never go wrong by setting a high bar. After all, if you reach for the stars, and only hit the moon, you have still accomplished something impressive. In a normal year, this may be sound advice. Unfortunately, lofty goal setters in a pandemic run the risk of their people seeing them as unrealistic, out of touch, or uncaring. Between the 24-hour news cycle, pandemic response, and economic stimulus efforts, systemic expectations have already been set low, whether we wish them to apply to our individual businesses or not. What leaders need, is a way to buck the trend and reframe the conversation. Enter the Underdog Effect.
Barbara Corcoran is famous for turning an insult from her ex-husband into the motivational fuel that drove her to build a multi-million dollar real estate empire. Where others might have been discouraged by his low expectations, she turned his “you’ll never succeed without me” into a promise to herself that she would prove him wrong. That is the power of the Underdog Effect in action. Work by Samir Nurmohamed, of the University of Pennsylvania, provides important insight into not only how the Underdog Effect works, but also how leaders can use it to benefit their business. The mechanism that causes individuals to “boost performance” in response to low expectations is the desire to prove others wrong. While this makes intuitive sense, it flies in the face of the accepted wisdom that low expectations invariably lead to low performance. Nurmohamed identified an important, but typically invisible, mechanism that must be satisfied for positive expectations to lead to increased performance or negative expectations to lead to poor performance. The expectations must be believed by the people to whom they are applied.
Expectations may be high or low, but what matters most is the credibility of the source of those expectations. “[W]hen [the source of the] expectations are seen as credible, underdog expectations [reduce performance], but when [the source of the expectations] lack[s] credibility, underdog expectations spark performance” (Nurmohame, 2020, p. 1107). In other words, under the right conditions, employees will increase effort and performance to prove the expectations wrong. When it comes to harnessing spite as fuel for motivation, credibility is the key. When expectations come from trusted sources, they are perceived to be right, true, and accurate. Once accepted, they become a self-fulfilling prophecy regardless of whether they predict high or low performance outcomes. When expectations come from sources that lack credibility, they are perceived as wrong, false, or inaccurate, and are countered by the Underdog Effect as when employees desire to prove them wrong.
There is tremendous promise in the idea that the credibility of the source “shapes whether expectations boost or undermine performance,” but it hides a cautionary message as well (Nurmohame, 2020, p. 1107). Setting high expectations for your team during a pandemic requires a high level of credibility, trust, and transparency. High expectations will indeed generate high performance if you can show your employees a vision that is worth working for and a roadmap that they believe will get them there. Lose your credibility, and your high expectations will backfire as your expectations become evidence that you are out of touch with reality. The key to successfully fulfilling high performance expectations in this tumultuous time is to safeguard your leadership credibility as the most important form of organizational capital you have. But what should leaders do if their team has already internalized low expectations?
For leaders seeking to turn their organizations around or address poor performance due to low expectations, the Underdog Effect provides several useful strategies. Make the “us Vs them” dynamic work for you by showing your employees that the naysayers do not know what they are talking about. Do not ignore low expectations or pretend they do not exist. Confront them directly and strategically undermine their credibility. Telling your team that you expect them to do better is not enough. You must show them how they will get there. They need to believe they can do it. Once they believe the vision, and have faith in the process, you are ready to fully engage the Underdog Effect to your advantage by challenging your team to prove the naysayers wrong.
Building and maintaining leadership credibility doesn’t happen overnight, but it is vital to retaining employees, growing your business, and finding ways to thrive in a post-Covid economy. It is hard work that requires a marathoner’s grit and the courage to keep going. You can do it.
Let’s get to work!
